Arizona coronavirus update: State nears 1K known deaths; 22,753 cases as of Thursday

Known Arizona deaths from COVID-19 reached 996 on Thursday, just short of 1,000 deaths, a grim milestone that Arizona now is all but certain to hit on Friday.

Thursday marked Arizona's third consecutive day of high numbers of new coronavirus cases reported, with 530 COVID-19 positives reported on Thursday, 973 on Wednesday and 1,127 new cases reported on Tuesday.

Thursday's total case count was at 22,753, a 2.38% increase from Wednesday's 22,223 cases. The state also reported 15 new deaths, bringing Arizona's total to 996.

Prior to Thursday's reported increase of 530 cases, Wednesday's reported increase of 973 cases and Tuesday's reported increase of 1,127 cases, new cases reported daily have typically been in the several hundreds. The state has reported new cases each day, typically in the several hundreds. The daily increase in case numbers also reflects a lag in obtaining results from the time a test was conducted.

Additional deaths are reported each day as well, and have varied between single- and double-digit increases. The number of deaths reported each day represents the additional known deaths reported by the Health Department that day, but could have occurred weeks prior and on different days.

The date with the most deaths in a single day so far is April 30 with 27 deaths, followed by May 7 with 25 deaths and April 23 and May 8 with 24 deaths each. Next comes April 20 with 23 deaths and April 19, May 3 and May 5 with 22 deaths on each of those days, according to Thursday's data, which is likely to change in the days ahead as more deaths are identified.

Maricopa County's confirmed case total was at 11,229 on Thursday, according to state numbers. 

"We are seeing some indicators that the number of cases in Maricopa County are starting to rise," county spokesman Ron Coleman said this week in an email. "This is in addition to an increase from increased testing.

The number of Arizona cases likely is higher than official numbers because of limits on supplies and available tests, especially in early weeks of the pandemic. 

The percentage of positive tests per week increased from 5% three weeks ago to 6% two weeks ago to 9% last week. The ideal trend is a decrease in percent of positives tests out of all tests. 

The state's effort to add new hospital beds has affected the hospitalization data. While the percentage of beds available has been fairly stable over the past couple weeks, the raw numbers of people in the hospital due to COVID-19 have actually gone up.

Statewide hospitalizations of people with positive and suspected COVID-19 in Arizona have hit record highs in recent days, hovering steady over the weekend and reaching a new high of 1,092 hospitalized on Tuesday followed by 1,079 hospitalized on Wednesday. Ventilator use and ICU bed use by patients with positive and suspected COVID-19 also were at around their highest levels since the state began reporting this data in early April.

The latest Arizona data

As of Thursday morning, the state reported death totals from these counties: 471 in Maricopa, 202 in Pima, 85 in Coconino, 67 in Navajo, 49 in Mohave, 45 in Apache, 40 in Pinal, 20 in Yuma, six in Yavapai and five in Cochise.

La Paz County and Gila County officials reported two deaths each and Graham County and Santa Cruz County reported one death each, although the state site listed the first three counties as just having fewer than three deaths and Santa Cruz as having none. Greenlee County reported no deaths.

Of the statewide identified cases overall, 47% are men and 53% are women. But men made up a higher percentage of deaths, with 55% of the deaths men and 45% women as of Thursday. 

People 65 and older made up 771 of the 996 total deaths, or 77%. People aged 55-64 made up 12% of deaths, followed by those aged 45-54 with 6% and 20-44 with 5% of deaths.

While race/ethnicity is unknown for 12% of deaths, 47% of deaths were white, 18% were Native American and 16% were Hispanic or Latino.

Overall, Arizona has 316.5 cases and 13.85 deaths per 100,000 residents, according to state data.

The scope of the outbreak differs by county. Maricopa County has 257.1 cases and 10.78 deaths per 100,000 residents, and Pima has 255.5 cases and 19.34 deaths per 100,000 residents.

Apache has 2,279.7 cases and 62.67 deaths per 100,000 residents, and Navajo has 1,809.9 cases and 59.38 deaths per 100,000 residents. 

Of the 22,753 cases, 28% involve individuals with chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, cardiac disease, hypertension, chronic pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease or chronic liver disease. In addition, 38% of all cases are considered "high-risk," meaning the individual is either over 65 or has a chronic condition.

Of all confirmed cases, 10% are younger than 20, 41% are aged 20 to 44, 16% are aged 45 to 54, 14% are aged 55 to 64 and 18% are over 65. This aligns with the proportions of testing done for each age range.

The state Health Department website said both state and private laboratories have completed a total of 249,755 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, and 101,147 serology, or antibody, tests.

Most COVID-19 diagnostic tests come back negative, the state's dashboard shows, with 6.9% positive. For serology tests, 3% have come back positive. 

Maricopa County’s Department of Public Health provided more detailed information on a total of 11,150 cases Thursday (the state reported the county case total at 11,229):

• Confirmed cases increased by 202 from Wednesday to Thursday. Deaths increased by six to 451. 
• The cases are 46% men and 54% women. 
• 1,365 cases have been linked to residents of long-term care facilities. Of those, 444 people (33%) have been hospitalized and 312 people (23%) have died.
• 217 long-term care facilities have at least one positive case from a resident or staff. Of the 736 staff members at these facilities who have tested positive, 56 have been hospitalized and three have died.
• 936 people under age 19 have tested positive, making up 8% of positive cases.
• People aged 20 to 44 make up 42% of positive cases, followed by people 45 to 64 years old at 30% and people 65 or older at 19%.
• 15%, or 1,648 cases, have been hospitalized.
• 4%, or 391 cases, have been in the intensive care unit. The hospitalization and ICU numbers include any cases that were in the hospital or ICU at any time during their illness, the county says.
• The likelihood of being hospitalized or in the ICU increases with age. Of those aged 20-44, 350 (7%) were hospitalized and 58 (1%) were in the ICU. For people aged 45-64, 567 (17%) were hospitalized and 141 (4%) were in the ICU. Among those over age 65, there were 714 (34%) hospitalized and 188 (9%) in the ICU.
• Of the 451 deaths in Maricopa County, 10 were aged 20-44, 54 were aged 45-64 and 387 were over age 65.
• Of the 451 deaths, 86% were 65 or older, 68% had a chronic medical condition and 94% were high risk (meaning 65 or older or at least one chronic medical condition).

Cases rise in other counties

According to Thursday's state update, Pima County reported 2,669 identified cases. Navajo County reported 2,042 cases, while Apache County reported 1,637; Coconino County 1,221; Yuma County 1,510; Pinal County 948; Santa Cruz County 462; Mohave County 428; and Yavapai County 307. 

La Paz County reported 110 cases, Cochise County 105, Gila County 39, Graham County 38 and Greenlee County eight, according to state numbers.

The Navajo Nation reported a total of 5,661 cases and 259 confirmed deaths as of Wednesday evening. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Navajo Nation has issued an emergency order requiring all individuals to wear masks in public and has continued to enforce 57-hour weekend curfews in order to slow the spread.

192 cases in Arizona prisons

The Arizona Department of Corrections' online dashboard said 192 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday. The cases were at these eight facilities: 74 in Florence, 62 in Yuma, 28 in Tucson, ten in Phoenix, nine in Marana, five in Eyman, two in Perryville and two in Kingman.

The department had tested 1,586 inmates, with 1,168 negative cases and 226 pending out of a total population of 40,902.

Seven inmate deaths are under investigation, with two deaths at Florence and one at Tucson determined to be directly or indirectly the result of COVID-19. Four other deaths, three at Florence and one at Tucson, are preliminarily attributed to COVID-19. Fifty-two inmates have recovered. 

Ninety-one staff members have self-reported positive for the virus, and 64 have been certified as recovered, the department said. 

Both legal and nonlegal visitations have been suspended through June 13, at which point the department will reassess. Temporary video visitation will be available to approved visitors and inmates who have visitation privileges, the department announced. Inmates are eligible for one 15-minute video visit per week. CenturyLink also is giving inmates two additional 15-minute calls for free during each week visitation is restricted.

Separately, the Mohave County Sheriff's Office on May 27 reported its first positive case, a male inmate between 30 and 40 years old who was not showing symptoms. He was placed in medical isolation and being monitored, officials said.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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