AZ reports 521 new COVID-19 cases, 15 new deaths as hospitalizations pass 8 weeks of steady declines

Arizona reported 521 new COVID-19 cases and 15 new known deaths on Friday as hospitalizations for the disease continue to decline and the percentage of tests coming back positive remains steady at a relatively low level.

Hospitalization metrics such as patient counts, ventilators in use and ER visits for COVID-19 have been trending downward for about eight weeks, with several metrics back down to levels from April, according to hospital data reported to the state. 

Identified cases rose to 207,523 and known deaths totaled 5,288, according to the daily report by the Arizona Department of Health Services. The 15 new known deaths reported on Friday represent the new deaths identified by the state Health Department that day, but many occurred days and weeks prior. Daily new case reports have fluctuated between about 80 and 1,100 daily new cases over the past three weeks.

Friday's dashboard shows 82% of inpatient beds and 78% of ICU beds in use, which includes people being treated for COVID-19 and other patients. COVID-19 patients are using 7% of all inpatient beds and 10% of ICU beds. Overall, 28% of ventilators were in use.

Most people who get the disease are not hospitalized. The state does not report the number of recovered cases, although it does report hospital discharges.

For much of the pandemic, testing did not keep up with the virus' spread, but the state worked to expand testing and reduce results turnaround time, which had been up to two weeks or longer for some tests, even through July. Sonora Quest, the state's largest test processor, reports it has cleared its backlog of tests and is returning most results within two days.

The number of weekly tests conducted dropped significantly in July and into August. 

Of known test results from the past three weeks, 4% have come back positive, according to the state, which has a unique way of calculating percent positivity. Johns Hopkins University calculates Arizona's seven-day moving average of percent positives at 6.1% and shows it has generally trended downward in recent weeks but is now at more of a plateau. A positivity rate of 5% is considered a good benchmark that the spread is under control. 

Here's what you need to know about Friday's numbers.

Reported cases in Arizona: 207,523

• Cases increased by 521, or 0.25%, from Thursday's 207,002 identified cases since the outbreak began.
• County cases: 136,887 in Maricopa, 22,247 in Pima, 12,374 in Yuma, 10,156 in Pinal, 5,677 in Navajo, 3,781 in Mohave, 3,454 in Coconino, 3,386 in Apache, 2,781 in Santa Cruz, 2,408 in Yavapai, 1,856 in Cochise, 1,162 in Gila, 772 in Graham, 524 in La Paz and 58 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.
• The rate of cases per 100,000 people is highest in Yuma County, followed by Santa Cruz County, Navajo and Apache counties.
• The Navajo Nation reported 9,933 cases and 530 confirmed deaths as of Thursday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.
• The Arizona Department of Corrections said 2,464 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Thursday, including 953 in Tucson; 39,558 inmates have been tested out of a population of about 39,000; 4,181 test results are pending. Thirteen incarcerated people have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 14 additional deaths under investigation. 
• While race/ethnicity is unknown for 34% of cases, 30% of cases are Hispanic or Latino, 23% of cases are white, 6% are Native American and 3% are Black.
• Laboratories have completed 1,277,543 diagnostic tests for COVID-19, 12.1% of which have come back positive. The percentage of positive tests had increased since mid-May but began decreasing in July. It was 4% for tests that have come back so far from the last three weeks, according to state numbers, which leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

Reported deaths: 5,288 known deaths 

• On Friday, 15 new deaths were reported, although many occurred days and weeks prior. 
• County deaths: 3,140 in Maricopa, 600 in Pima, 332 in Yuma, 226 in Navajo, 216 in Mohave, 193 in Pinal, 154 in Apache, 131 in Coconino, 79 in Yavapai, 64 in Cochise, 61 in Santa Cruz, 51 in Gila, 24 in Graham, 15 in La Paz and fewer than three in Greenlee.
• People aged 65 and older made up 3,774 of the 5,288 deaths, or 71%.
• While race/ethnicity is unknown for 11% of deaths, 42% of those who died were white, 30% were Hispanic or Latino, 11% were Native American and 3% were Black.

Hospitalizations continue 8 weeks of steady declines

• Inpatients with suspected and confirmed COVID-19 were at 577 on Thursday, the same level of COVID-19 inpatients as in mid-April. Inpatient numbers have been trending downward for more than eight weeks. Hospitalizations surpassed 3,000 daily for much of July and have decreased steadily since.
• ICU bed use for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients was at 171 beds in use on Thursday, a drop from Wednesday's 204 beds in use. ICU bed occupancy for COVID-19 patients is at its lowest level reported since early April. Occupied beds have seen gradual decreases for more than eight weeks.
• Ventilator use for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 patients was at 100 on Thursday, the lowest it has been since hospitals began reporting the data in early April. Ventilator numbers have generally been declining for eight weeks, after hitting a record high 687 ventilators in use on July 16.
• Emergency department visits for patients with suspected and confirmed COVID-19 was at 836 on Thursday. Generally, with a few exceptions, daily ER visits are gradually trending downward. Daily ER visits first surpassed 1,000 on June 16 and were above that level nearly every day since, until daily ER visits dropped below 1,000 on Aug. 9. The number since then has hovered around or below 1,000.
• The number of patients with suspected and confirmed positive COVID-19 discharged from hospitals was at 162 patients discharged on Thursday. July saw relatively high discharge numbers, which generally have been decreasing since then.

Reach the reporter at Alison.Steinbach@arizonarepublic.com or at 602-444-4282. Follow her on Twitter @alisteinbach.

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